Vivek Ramaswamy, a mainstream entrepreneur and political figure, is running to become the next governor of Ohio. The election is in November 2026 and he has the backing of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. He’s undoubtedly well-positioned to win the Republican nomination but not guaranteed to win the race, although he’s probably the frontrunner at this moment.
A familiar name is important in politics. Ask Al Gore, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Donald Trump. And Ramaswamy’s name, in addition to his endorsements, separates him from the typical gubernatorial candidate. As a result, he’s certainly the favorite to win and will be for some time. After all, Ohio is a red state and Ramaswamy is quite conservative, However, there are a few things that will work against him.
- Off-Year Election
Because there won’t be a presidential race in 2026, turnout will likely be lower as voters aren’t as motivated to go to the polls during off-year elections. As a result, Ramaswamy won’t be able to depend on support from folks who vote just once every four years or only when Trump is on the ticket.
- Ohioans Like Moderate Governors
The current and previous governors, Mike DeWine and John Kasich, were easily elected and re-elected. Like Ramaswamy, both are Republican but unlike Ramaswamy, neither is the hardcore MAGA type. Yes, Donald Trump did very well in Ohio in presidential elections but, keep in mind, that they’ve had a preference for moderate governors lately. - Blue Collar
With its high percentage of manufacturing, mining, logging, and construction workers, Ohio is known for being very blue-collar. And while Ohioans were able to relate to Trump, a billionaire businessman, will they be able to connect with Ramaswamy, another filthy rich mogule, the same way? A well-liked, conservative Democrat who speaks their language, like former Congressman Tim Ryan, might resonate more with voters. - The Dreaded Midterms
During the past 40 years, midterm elections haven’t been very friendly to the party in presidential power. If inflation hasn’t been solved by November 2026 or Republicans are unpopular for any other reason(s), Ohioans could very well opt to support a popular Democrat who they’ll find more relatable.
2022 Senate Race
If you’re supporting Team Ramaswamy, consider JD Vance’s 2022 U.S. Senate victory over Ryan as a compelling indicator of potential success. As a MAGA candidate, Vance managed to overcome a well-liked Democrat during an off-year election—a significant achievement given the circumstances. At that time, Democrats held power and were grappling with inflation issues. Now, with Republicans in control, the dynamics have shifted, potentially giving the Democrat candidate an edge this time around.
Vance’s victory, with a 6.1 point margin, stands out as notably tighter compared to other statewide elections in Ohio where Republicans triumphed. This outcome aligns closely with pre-election polling predictions, underscoring its reliability. Furthermore, Ryan’s performance was impressive; he managed to flip four counties that had previously supported retiring Republican incumbent Rob Portman in his 2016 re-election bid.
Make no mistake, Ramaswamy is the clear frontrunner but there are no guarantees, especially if Trump and the Republicans are underwater by election time.