Tonight, two deeply red districts in Florida held House races for previous Republican Members of Congress who vacated their seats to work in the Trump Administration. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz (FL-1) resigned his position, hoping to become President Donald Trump’s Attorney General, but withdrew his name from consideration, citing concerns that his nomination was becoming a distraction to the Trump transition team. And Michael Waltz, who previously represented Florida’s 6th District, vacated his seat to become Trump’s national security adviser.
If you’re a MAGA Republican, it’s crucial to consider this: MAGA victories in these districts exceeded 30 percentage points in November. However, with 95 percent of the votes counted in both areas, the Republican candidates look poised to win by 14-18 percentage points. These are districts where Democrats should be blown away. Instead of being embarrassed, both Democrats put up formidable numbers in parts of Florida that can be aptly described as MAGA Country.
In the 2024 Election, Waltz won his race by 33 and Gaetz by 32. And Trump carried those districts in 2024 by 16 and 38 percentage points, respectively. And while 16 is consistent with the showing for Waltz’s replacement tonight, let’s not forget Waltz won the same seat by twice as much just a few months ago.
Given that both Florida MAGA candidates will likely underperform by roughly 14-18 percentage points versus November, does this mean Kamala Harris would beat Trump in Florida today, given she lost in November by only 13?
Not necessarily.
But it suggests there’s a lot of softening in support for Republican candidates at the moment.
Moreover, it strongly suggests that if the election were held tonight, Harris would have a solid opportunity to win by easily securing all of the swing states. It also suggests the eroding support for MAGA thus far.
It remains to be seen if the Florida House races were bellwethers for the country. We’ll have to wait for the results of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which will also be determined tonight, and the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey in November.
If you’re a MAGA Republican, you can appreciate the victories, but not the margins. After all, two Democrats had respectable showings in ruby red districts. If MAGA can’t do any better in two of their extremely strong districts, what might that mean for the swing districts across Florida and the U.S?