According to the Tufts Center for Information & Research on Civic Engagement, young voters aged 18 to 29 leaned towards Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 election by a narrow margin of just 4 points: 51% to 47%. While this gap is smaller compared to the substantial +25 point lead young voters gave President Biden over Trump in 2020, it remains significant as it represents the strongest support Harris received from any age group in this election. Furthermore, only a minimal 1% of young voters opted for a third-party or independent candidate, which is even lower than the already small 3% who did so in the previous election.
If you’re looking for one reason Harris lost, young voters played a major role.
This recent shift in political leanings among Generation Z voters has caught the attention of Democratic pollsters, who are expressing surprise at the conservative inclinations emerging within this demographic. Here are some key points highlighting this trend:
- Polling Data: Recent polling shows Trump’s approval rating among 18-29-year-olds had risen to 52.7% as of February, indicating a strong conservative shift, particularly among young men.
- Gender Divide: There is a notable gender gap in voting preferences among Gen Z, with young men more likely to support conservative candidates than their female counterparts. This divide is highlighted by a 23-percentage-point difference in support for Trump between young men and women.
- Party Identification: Despite some conservative leanings, Gen Z adults still identify more as Democrats (36%) than Republicans (21%), with Gen Z women being particularly progressive. However, there is a growing trend of young conservatives who do not necessarily identify with traditional party affiliations.
- Economic Factors: Financial concerns and economic instability are cited as factors contributing to Gen Z’s shift towards conservatism, with many prioritizing economic stability over progressive ideals.
Democratic pollster David Shor has expressed astonishment at these trends, noting that young people have transitioned from being the most progressive generation to potentially the most conservative in decades. However, I’m still not convinced that’s the case.
Trump’s assurances to eliminate uncertainty surrounding inflation and the economy resonated with a broad audience, transcending age groups. While significant topics like immigration, trans rights, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were impactful discussions, it was the soaring grocery prices that truly served as the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
Many individuals without firm party loyalties cast their votes for Trump based on a belief that he would effectively reduce these everyday costs. (Of course, prices are increasing but that’s for another article)
Second, the Trump campaign did well in pushing toxic masculinity to young men. Trump’s circle included men who reinforced the so-called alpha male stereotype while belittling childless women and advocating for family values that undermine women’s autonomy. For many men, Trump embodies “hegemonic masculinity,” where traits like aggression, control, and dominance are seen as admirable and highly valued. However, research shows that proving masculinity doesn’t have to involve oppressing or subordinating others.
Considering young men’s gravitation towards the manosphere, it’s evident that this form of masculinity holds significant appeal for many. But, how’s that working out for them now?
Overall, while there is evidence of a conservative shift among some segments of Gen Z, particularly young men, folks 18 to 29 remain diverse in their political leanings, with most still identifying as liberal or progressive, especially women.
