Are large American families becoming passe?
My maternal grandmother had 11 kids but my mom had only one (me).
In a 2024 survey, 57% of adults aged 18 to 49 who were unlikely to have children simply stated they did not want to have children, while 44% wanted to focus on other things, and 38% cited concerns about the state of the world.
The U.S. fertility rate reached a historic low in 2023, with a growing share of women ages 25 to 44 having never given birth. And the percentage of U.S. adults under 50 without children who say they are unlikely to ever have kids rose from 37% in 2018 to 47% in 2023.
The U.S. population is now expected to reach 372 million by 2055, which is 11 million less than last year’s estimate.
And, shockingly, the annual population growth rate is projected to be around 0.2% over the next three decades, less than one-fourth of the growth rate observed between 1975 and 2024.
And yes, without sustained immigration, the U.S. population is projected to start shrinking by 2033.
That might be one reason why some are hellbent on outlawing all types of abortions – and some forms of contraception – nationwide. Hence, improved contraception and reproductive health led to a whopping 15% drop in unintended pregnancies from 2010 to 2019.
Why are Americans less excited about having kids?
Of those who don’t want kids, the below reasons were cited:
- Medical issues
- Money
The cost of raising children has increased significantly, with daycare and preschool expenses surging by approximately 263% from 1991 to 2024. The U.S. lacks a mandated paid parental leave policy, with only about 25% of American workers having access to such benefits. - Lack of a quality partner
The marriage rate has dropped since our parents were kids - One or both partners are deemed too old
More people are getting married later in life - More women are having careers
- State of the world (global warming, environment, etc)
Do Americans who have kids want more?
Per a Pew Research study in October 2021, among parents aged 18-49, a whopping 74% said they are unlikely to have more kids. The response was virtually the same as it was in 2018.
In that year, the average American adult woman had 1.7 children, a sizeable decrease from 7 in 1800. In fact, sans the Baby Boom (when the U.S. fertility rate jumped to 3.62), American women have consistently been having fewer kids over the past century.
And this phenomenon isn’t limited to the States. Worldwide, the fertility rate has fallen rapidly. In 1950, the average global family had 4.7 kids compared to only 2.4 today. And in nowhere is population decline more evident than in some parts of Europe.
In 2021, the Pope called Italy’s plunging birthrate a ‘tragedy.’ The birthrate there had fallen for the 12th consecutive time and hit its lowest level since 1861.
“The demographic winter is a real worry, at least here in Italy,” the pope said in his weekly address in front of St. Peter’s Basilica.
And it appears Germany is facing a population crisis as well. Should it be a surprise Germany is importing immigrants from all over the globe hoping they’ll accept unwanted and unfilled jobs, pay taxes, and support its increasingly aging population?
“The German birth rate is considerably below what’s needed to replace the population. German seniors, meanwhile, are living longer and drawing more on state resources for their pensions and health care.”
Business Standard; Immigrants are a gift: Germany learns from solution for birth rate crisis, May 2021
Public Perception
Almost half of all U.S. adults (47%) believe that fewer people choosing to have children in the future would have a negative impact on the country. Birthrate trends reflect changing societal values and economic realities, with many Americans – and Europeans – now recognizing that fulfillment can be achieved through various avenues beyond traditional family models.
The average American family is getting smaller. As a result, topics such as immigration policy, abortion, and contraception will, for better or worse, continue to be impactful issues for quite some time.
Please share your thoughts below on Americans’ shifting desires as they relate to parenthood and the dwindling size of the typical nuclear family.